The draft randomizer handed me the No. 1 decide within the LABR blended league draft Tuesday evening, and I did not have any hesitation. However with your entire baseball universe obtainable to me — together with reigning MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Decide — I went in what some may contemplate an unconventional course. I chosen Bobby Witt Jr.
This is not meant to be a hot-take factor or a look-at-me decide. And I do not fault anybody who would decide Ohtani or Decide on this spot (be aware, all of my Yahoo colleagues at the moment rank Ohtani first). It is a matter of attempting to take Wayne Gretzky’s recommendation — I am not skating to the place the puck has been, I am skating to the place the puck is headed.
The case towards taking Ohtani No. 1 in fantasy drafts
A bit of the pick-Witt train invariably turns into a gentle speaking down of Ohtani — this piece is as a lot about why I am not taking Ohtani as it’s why I’m taking Witt. I take no pleasure in nitpicking Ohtani. He is the unicorn of baseball, a participant no residing particular person has a comparability for. Ohtani was simply essentially the most useful participant in fantasy final season, courtesy of that absurd .310-134-54-130-59 line.
Let’s concentrate on that remaining column for Ohtani, the 59 steals. It is incongruent with the remainder of his profession. Beginning in 2018, listed below are the yearly steal counts for Showtime: 10-12-7*-26-11-20 (the seven steals got here within the pandemic season). After which final 12 months, we noticed the 59-bag explosion.
I believe Ohtani upped his steal curiosity final 12 months as a result of registering a 50-50 season grew to become a tangible objective. By way of 101 video games, he was sitting on 24 swipes, a stable complete, clearly headed for a brand new profession excessive. After which in his remaining 58 video games, he stole a ridiculous 35 baggage — on 35 makes an attempt, which is equally ridiculous. There was a vacation spot in thoughts, a brand new plateau to shoot for.
Alas, stealing bases is a bodily drain on the physique. And even whereas it is a plus play for a high-percentage thief like Ohtani, it isn’t at all times the sensible factor to do, long run. Whereas Ohtani was working wild, most of his veteran teammates have been choosing their spots to run. Mookie Betts settled for a modest 16 steals, on 18 makes an attempt. Freddie Freeman moved all the way down to 9 baggage, after 23 steals the earlier 12 months. It is not that gamers like this could’t steal bases. It is that they do not suppose it is at all times definitely worth the bodily put on and tear.
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Let’s face that the loaded Dodgers are principally within the 2025 playoffs already, like Duke is already within the males’s basketball match or Scottie Scheffler has successfully already made the weekend on the Masters. This franchise has made the playoffs 12 straight years, with 11 division titles. The 2025 roster might be the deepest one it is ever had. Los Angeles has the luxurious of planning for October even when it is months away — and meaning being prudent with participant accidents and workloads. I believe that can be an invisible hand that encourages Ohtani to run much less.
Ohtani can be scheduled to pitch this 12 months, which is one other tax on his physique. Possibly it means he has extra total harm threat. Maybe the shift again to the mound means he has to surrender a much less vital a part of his sport, just like the base-stealing. Combine all of it collectively and I believe Ohtani’s steals may simply land again within the 20-30 vary, and the workload of pitching additionally makes me an eyelash involved about what his offense may seem like.
Ohtani was a 9.2-win offensive participant final 12 months, maybe as a result of he was unburdened by pitching. His earlier excessive in offensive bWAR was 6; an plain famous person, positive, however not at 2024’s ranges. Let’s attempt to settle for final 12 months because the outlier season it really was. And let’s not neglect that in any format, he is utility-only — he does not carry a place. It is a small ding, however it’s price contemplating, particularly in the event you play on a platform much less position-flexible than Yahoo.
That is sufficient in regards to the man I did not decide. What in regards to the participant I did?
The case for taking Witt No. 1 in fantasy drafts
One merchandise about Witt that particularly excites me is the concept that we’ve not seen his greatest season but. He steps into his age-25 marketing campaign (Decide turns 33 in April; Ohtani turns 31 in July). There’s already loads of black ink on Witt’s Baseball Reference web page — final 12 months he led the AL in hits and the majors in batting common. His walks have been up, his strikeouts down. His Baseball Savant slider web page is a wonderful assortment of pink — along with all of the hard-hit metrics, be aware the 100 percentile dash velocity. It does not appear honest {that a} hitter this nice can be the quickest participant in baseball. (This hasn’t at all times led to Witt being an ideal base stealer, however he is nonetheless a child — guess on that effectivity bettering.)
Witt does not have the supporting forged that Ohtani enjoys, however the Royals are heading in the right direction. They have been thirteenth in runs final 12 months, after sitting twenty third the earlier season. Six of the highest seven hitters within the KC lineup are projected to be plus offensive gamers, in the event you work off their projected wRC+. Possibly the Royals cannot go toe-to-toe with one of the best groups 1 via 9, however the prime 4 of Jonathan India, Witt, Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez seems daunting to me.
There’s some randomness to accidents, however when unsure, guess on the youthful gamers. Witt has missed simply 17 video games in three years. Ohtani has met vital harm in three of his seven seasons, whereas Decide has discovered IL points in 4 of his previous seven seasons. The longer I play fantasy sports activities, the extra I need my premium gamers to be front-nine guys, athletes who’re nonetheless on the escalator.
And typically there are not any mistaken solutions. Witt, Ohtani and Decide can all be the centerpiece of any fantasy offense. All of them contributed in all 5 classes final 12 months (albeit Decide’s steals are in all probability a year-to-year factor). Witt could lead on the majors in virtually any class. Decide is the signature right-handed energy hitter in baseball, whereas sustaining a excessive common. Ohtani stays the final word one-of-one man.
However my determination got here all the way down to age and profession arc. And my determination was influenced by the bizarre Ohtani spike in steals, and the chance that regresses considerably. I additionally am unsure how a lot a pitching workload may have an effect on Ohtani’s offense, even when that distinction is slight.
Not everybody has to favor the identical shade of blue. Not every little thing needs to be East Coast or West Coast. So for 2025, Bobby Witt Jr. is my man.
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