I’ve been sports activities betting for 15 years now, and I can’t keep in mind the final time I watched a sport with out realizing what the percentages had been. After being across the trade so lengthy, I’ve developed a robust sense not solely of how markets transfer and evolve, but additionally which betting markets are established and that are comparatively new.
One market that’s gained traction just lately is the straightforward sure/no wager on whether or not an NFL staff will make the playoffs. Whereas this was sometimes accessible previously, it’s now broadly supplied for all groups, posted months prematurely and sometimes nonetheless accessible properly into the season.
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I discover this market notably exploitable. There are constant angles to focus on: weak divisions, unbalanced schedules and uneven harm conditions. Positive, these components are all priced into the percentages, however the bottom line is figuring out the place the market is over- or under-weight for sure groups.
Listed here are three NFL playoff futures bets I believe are value putting proper now:
San Francisco 49ers to make the playoffs (-180 at BetMGM)
The 49ers enter this season with the simplest schedule within the NFL based mostly on opponent projected win totals. After ending final of their division, they draw a schedule with a 41.5% opponent win proportion final season. They had been hit laborious by the harm bug final yr and shall be hoping for higher well being this season. The run protection was abysmal, rating within the backside 5 of the league, however this yr they addressed it by drafting elite line of defense prospect Mykal Williams within the first spherical and bringing again Robert Saleh as their defensive coordinator. Regardless of rating twenty ninth in factors allowed final season, they had been No. 2 in yards per sport allowed. The latter is a bigger indicator of what is prone to occur shifting ahead.
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The offense has continued to be plug-and-play all through the Kyle Shanahan period, and I anticipate QB Brock Purdy to remain wholesome, because of a robust offensive line and a play model that limits publicity to massive hits.
The rationale I desire this angle over betting the division for San Francisco is as a result of, whereas the division is powerful, the convention is comparatively weak. It will not be stunning to see three of the 4 groups within the NFC West make the playoffs. In the meantime, all eight groups within the NFC East and NFC North face tougher-than-average schedules, in response to Sharp Soccer Evaluation.
Chicago Bears to overlook the playoffs (-190)
The Bears have the seventh-hardest projected schedule within the NFL, together with six video games towards an extremely robust NFC North, they usually have a brand new head coach together with a second-year quarterback. All of those components make this staff a transparent fade for me. Nevertheless, the basic flaw in my eyes is the Bears’ staff identification in contrast with their enjoying situations.
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This staff is making an attempt to play with tempo and house, loading up on weapons to encompass Caleb Williams. Soccer is received within the trenches, particularly in chilly and windy Chicago. There’s a purpose no Bears quarterback has ever thrown for 4,000 yards in a single season: house situations typically deter these kinds of performances. The subsequent nice Bears staff could have an elite protection and a robust working sport; this isn’t it.
The Bears ranked twenty second in TD conversion charge final season, and I’m skeptical the brand new teaching employees will vastly enhance that metric; scoring TDs on 51.4% of drives into the crimson zone after which settling for area targets in robust situations shouldn’t be a recipe for fulfillment. Fade the Bears this yr.
Jacksonville Jaguars to make the playoffs (+165)
Jacksonville is a sneaky staff value attacking in a number of methods this offseason. It has the potential to be a breakout staff that might earn a playoff berth and a few award nominations similar to Liam Coen for Coach of the 12 months, Travis Hunter for Rookie of the 12 months, or perhaps a Trevor Lawrence MVP lengthy shot. I need to play the Jaguars in varied plus-odds methods.
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The AFC South is the weakest division within the convention. The Colts nonetheless haven’t named a beginning quarterback — and the alternatives are Anthony Richardson and Daniel Jones. The Titans have a rookie quarterback and a second-year head coach. The Texans face under-discussed points with a problematic offensive line, to not point out Joe Mixon’s foot harm.
Lawrence has breakout WR Brian Thomas Jr., who had 1,282 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns, and the specter of Heisman winner Hunter, whom the Jaguars traded as much as No. 2 to get within the 2025 NFL Draft. Lastly, with the twin threats at RB between Tank Bigsby (almost 800 dashing yards and seven TDs) and Travis Etienne, the depth of expertise and variety of play calls ought to vastly enhance on offense.
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